Barcelona are the favorites in the title race, but the Europa League
Barcelona has made a new history in the Champions League this time. The team has lost the first two matches of this first group stage. They have conceded 6 goals in two matches, they could not score any goal themselves. There is not a single shot in the goal. None of the other 31 teams playing in the Champions League have shown such a failure. The team is in danger of being knocked out of the group stage of the Champions League after 21 years. Bar্সa have lost just two matches in a row in the history of European football. Twice they were eliminated from the group.
In this situation, the thought of changing the coach is going on. It remains to be seen whether the new coach will be able to change their fortunes in the Champions League. But what the statistics say is that Barcelona fans are forced to panic. US data analyst website Five Thirty says Barcelona will win the Europa League this time!
Current coach Ronald Coman has said he does not have high hopes for the Champions League. He said before the start of the tournament that there is no point in hoping for a miracle, it would not be right for Bar্সa fans to dream of winning the Champions League. And after losing the first two matches of the group, he said, “Of course we should do better, but we will not win the Champions League.”
Talking about the possibility of a team playing in the Champions League winning the Europa League means that the team is not in the last 16 of the Champions League. Five Thirty Eight are more likely to finish third in the group of Bayern Munich, Benfica and Dynamo Kiev.
According to this website, Barcelona has a 9% chance of winning the Europa League. And Barcelona has a 55% chance of playing in the knockout stage (last 32) of Europe by finishing third in the Champions League group! The other five teams behind Barcelona in the race to win the Europa League are playing Europa. Likely Napoli, Real Sociedad, Leverkusen, Real Betis and West Ham, the other two teams Leipzig and Porto are playing in the Champions League for the time being, just like Barcelona.
Fifty-eight is focusing on the form of the teams in the Champions League this season. However, seeing the possibility of passing their group stage, the fans can also be hopeful. The data analyst site says Barারa’s probability is 33% in this case. And this time Barcelona has the chance to win the Champions League at number 12. However, Juventus fans may be jealous of their 2% chance. Juventus have a 1% chance of winning the Champions League after winning the first two matches!
Despite winning the first match, Manchester City lost to Messi-Neymar-Mbappe’s PSG in the next match. However, in the statistics of the match (goal chances, goal shots, possession of the ball, number of expected goals), in the eyes of this website, they are the favorites of the Champions League. Pep Guardiola has a 22% chance of Manchester City winning the Champions League this time around. And Bayern Munich has a 19% chance of making a great start. The surprise is in the name of the third favorite. The site is keeping Ajax, which has scored seven goals in the first two matches, at three. Liverpool (10%) are four with a 1 per cent lower chance than Ajax.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, won the first match by a narrow margin but lost at home to Sheriff Tiraspol, who was playing for the first time in the next match. Due to this, Real has six chances to win the Champions League. Fiveth Thirty says they have a 5% chance of winning the Champions League. Barcelona, who have three points from two matches, have a 7% chance of advancing to the group stage. And the probability of going to the Europa League in the third place is 9%. Los Blancos even have a chance to win the Europa League, but that is only 1%.
Excluding emotions, history and squads, what is the success rate of such predictions in terms of statistics of the Five Thirty? If you want to know about this, you have to look back at the predictions of this site last season. The website named potential winners of the Champions League and Europa League after the quarter-finals of the service. It showed City a 55% chance of winning. And in Europe, Manchester United (45%) is more likely. But in the end, the title went to Chelsea (16%) and Villarreal (19%).